As McLaren continues its strong start to the 2025 Formula 1 season, Lando Norris has pushed back against claims that his team is clearly ahead of the field. Despite leading the Constructors’ Championship by 77 points heading into the Miami Grand Prix, Norris insists the pace advantage isn’t as big as it seems.
Following Oscar Piastri’s victory in Saudi Arabia — McLaren’s fourth win in the first five races — Norris challenged the perception that McLaren should be dominating outright.
“They’re just as quick as us in qualifying and in races,” said Norris, referencing Red Bull. “Just because we’re fast in practice, people start talking nonsense.”
Are McLaren Really Dominating?
Sky Sports F1’s strategy expert Bernie Collins analyzed the first five races to assess McLaren’s real edge using theoretical best lap (TBL) data — a tool that measures the fastest possible qualifying lap if a driver had pieced together their best sector times.
While not perfect, TBL removes many variables, offering a useful view of underlying performance.
Race-by-Race Breakdown
Australian Grand Prix
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Pole: Lando Norris
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Race Winner: Norris
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Summary: McLaren locked out the front row with a dominant margin. TBLs matched real qualifying results. In the race, McLaren showed significantly superior pace on degrading intermediates, with Verstappen trailing Piastri by 15 seconds before a Safety Car.
Chinese Grand Prix
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Pole: Oscar Piastri
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Race Winner: Piastri
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Summary: George Russell split the McLarens in qualifying. Norris and Piastri both left time on the table. In the race, Piastri won comfortably, with Verstappen 16 seconds back — most of that lost in the first stint.
Japanese Grand Prix
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Pole: Max Verstappen
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Race Winner: Verstappen
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Summary: Verstappen pulled off a near-perfect lap to edge out McLaren. However, TBL showed McLaren had the potential to match him. In the race, Verstappen’s track position was key; McLaren couldn’t make their slight pace edge count.
Bahrain Grand Prix
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Pole: Oscar Piastri
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Race Winner: Piastri
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Summary: Norris underperformed in Q3. Piastri dominated the race, opening a comfortable gap. Verstappen, struggling with setup, finished over 30 seconds behind.
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
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Pole: Max Verstappen
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Race Winner: Not provided in original article
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Summary: Norris crashed in Q3, skewing qualifying comparisons. In Q2, he led the timesheets. Piastri and Verstappen were close behind, suggesting McLaren again had a slight edge.
So, What Does the Data Say?
Despite the narrative that McLaren should be steamrolling the competition, Collins’ data shows their advantage is marginal. In qualifying, McLaren drivers often fail to string together their best sectors. In races, Red Bull and Mercedes have challenged when circumstances allow — especially with Verstappen’s consistency.
Verstappen’s ability to extract maximum performance from the Red Bull, and capitalise on track position, has helped him stay within 12 points of Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship.
Even George Russell, once adamant that McLaren “should win every race,” has softened his stance, now calling them “one step ahead” — not dominant.
Conclusion: Margins Matter
McLaren may hold the fastest car on average, but the gap isn’t wide enough to guarantee wins. Execution, track position, and race day performance remain critical — which is exactly why Verstappen and Russell are still in the hunt.
The numbers don’t lie: McLaren are strong, but the 2025 F1 season is far from over.